Saturday, July 25, 2009

Bubbles or no bubbles, please..

The inflate - deflate cycle is a sign that the economy is not rigor mortis but alive and kicking. In the famous book “Capitalism and freedom”, Milton Freedman recalls a soviet official who could not understand the fact that there was no department in charge with the supply of bread to the City of London. Instead, the whole supply-distribution system was self-coordinating. Obviously, this is one of the great virtues of the free-market economy. The flip side of the coin is that a once perfectly functioning system of integrated markets can suddenly collapse, without warning and with severe short-term consequences. A tightly controlled system is less prone to this kind of a crash.
In the eve of the current crisis it has become more obvious than ever that one of the intrinsic properties of the free-market system is the boom-bust cycle. Sometimes, various factors compound the intensity of the upturn or of the downturn. Every once in a while, bubbles of various origins burst, leaving the economy in shatters. Is this desirable or the regulators should fight to contain the bubbles and their negative consequences? One of the most analyzed bubbles was the IT bubble which burst in 2000. While scores of newly born or well established IT companies were put to rest, the accumulation of capital and the concentration of interest in the years of the expansionist bubble left a powerful legacy and many of today’s IT giants were born during that auspicious period.
Should governments or regulators try to contain bubbles? I would argue against. There is no way to foresee an optimal path for development. Bubbles have synergetic effects and provide resources to areas that would otherwise linger in an underdeveloped stage for years. It is up to everyone to stay alert and prepared for the big collapse, whenever that might happen. Once the bubble bursts, it will wash away the greedy and the reckless. Personally, I am looking forward to the bubble of interplanetary travel or space exploring, for that matter.